Consensus PnL -$391K · win rate 17% (1–5, n=6) · was PM monthly #960 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-390.5K
Record
1W / 5L
Win Rate
17.0%
of 6 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2243
Source
PM monthly #960
Trades
436
Markets
14
Volume
$432.9K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $12K · now 16¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (82% of 34)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $10K · now 13¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $9.6K · now 1¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $7.9K · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 15)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $7.9K · now 6¢ · in at 7¢with the consensus (97% of 32)
Specialties
3 settled consensus markets · held side won 33% at an average entry of 38¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where novice99's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 67%(won 50% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.