Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 99¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

$4.0K

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares787,693

Combined PnL+$3.9K

No1 trader

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares6,000

Combined PnL+$132

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

80 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO novice99CTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$5.5K	$9.6K	+$4.1K	— 1-7 (8)
11 11122	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.8K	$5.9K	+$132	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$40.72	$76.48	+$35.8	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$38.24	$61.28	-$278.43	47% 85-95 (180)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$41.64	+$41.64	26% 351-985 (1336)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yes	$947.89	$17.65	+$9.33	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$1.0K	$1.25	+$1.25	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.44	+$0.44	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

novice99CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,546.41

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

—

1-7 (8)

11122

Invested

$5,793

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$132

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.72

Value

$76.48

PnL

+$35.8

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.24

Value

$61.28

PnL

-$278.43

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$41.64

PnL

+$41.64

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$947.89

Value

$17.65

PnL

+$9.33

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,013.43

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,118.41

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.44

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

80 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.