Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 31 of 32 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

31 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (97%) · Yes at 5.8¢ · $56K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 97%

Total Value

$55.7K

Combined PnL

$7.9K

Smart Money Entry

5.4¢ → 5.8¢

+7% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

31 of 32 top traders (97%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)31 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes31 traders

Total Value$55.5K

Total Shares956,284

Combined PnL+$7.9K

No1 trader

Total Value$282.75

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$0.9

Yes — 97%No — 3%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

31 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

207 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

97% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 14

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 95% · 21

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 4.4¢	$14.5K	$18.3K	+$3.8K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
NO novice99CTR	Yesavg 7.4¢	$10.2K	$7.9K	$-2.3K	— 1-7 (8)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$5.9K	$6.7K	+$871.34	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$3.4K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
AA aaabbbCTR	Yesavg 6.6¢	$4.4K	$4.0K	-$475.87	50% 447-446 (893)
LinaBellCTR	Yesavg 6.9¢	$4.6K	$3.9K	-$770.84	64% 1197-678 (1875)
siickCTR	Yesavg 4.9¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$378.87	57% 767-580 (1347)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$2.1K	$1.6K	-$494.73	68% 2074-957 (3031)
GUHHHCTR	Yesavg 4.9¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$380.96	78% 879-250 (1129)
SL SlavaUkrainiCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$633.42	$734.76	+$95.01	71% 160-66 (226)
FU FulguratorCTR	Yesavg 7.4¢	$742.1	$584.12	-$163.01	92% 61-5 (66)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Yesavg 4.9¢	$243.47	$580	+$85	83% 3802-801 (4603)
GayPrideCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$50.5K	$570.5	+$3.3K	49% 357-367 (724)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$412.47	$521	+$108.53	26% 351-985 (1336)
studmuffin6969CTR	Yesavg 7¢	$452.5	$377	-$78.75	59% 1027-717 (1744)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$61.02	$302.3	+$241.28	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 94¢	$281.85	$282.75	+$0.9	66% 955-482 (1437)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$47.5	$206.92	+$159.11	47% 83-94 (177)
XieGuangKunCTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$133.89	$201.71	+$67.82	51% 367-349 (716)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$265.52	$183.83	+$50.17	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$205.5	$174	-$31.5	57% 766-585 (1351)
debasedCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$141.25	$145	+$3.75	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
gopfan2CTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$137.43	$125.89	-$11.54	51% 901-875 (1776)
4751346CTR	Yesavg 7.2¢	$151.44	$116	-$35.44	72% 1257-483 (1740)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$124	$116	-$9	37% 566-944 (1510)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$14,536.69

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

novice99CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,165.2

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

—

1-7 (8)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,866.13

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$871.34

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,974.89

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

aaabbbCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,444.95

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$475.87

Record

50%

447-446 (893)

LinaBellCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,625.27

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$770.84

Record

64%

1197-678 (1875)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,130.62

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$378.87

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,110.7

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$494.73

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

GUHHHCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,819.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$380.96

Record

78%

879-250 (1129)

SlavaUkrainiCTR

Yes

Invested

$633.42

Value

$734.76

PnL

+$95.01

Record

71%

160-66 (226)

FulguratorCTR

Yes

Invested

$742.1

Value

$584.12

PnL

-$163.01

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Yes

Invested

$243.47

Value

$580

PnL

+$85

Record

83%

3802-801 (4603)

GayPrideCTR

Yes

Invested

$50,488.12

Value

$570.5

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$412.47

Value

$521

PnL

+$108.53

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

studmuffin6969CTR

Yes

Invested

$452.5

Value

$377

PnL

-$78.75

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$61.02

Value

$302.3

PnL

+$241.28

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$281.85

Value

$282.75

PnL

+$0.9

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$47.5

Value

$206.92

PnL

+$159.11

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

XieGuangKunCTR

Yes

Invested

$133.89

Value

$201.71

PnL

+$67.82

Record

51%

367-349 (716)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$265.52

Value

$183.83

PnL

+$50.17

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$205.5

Value

$174

PnL

-$31.5

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$141.25

Value

$145

PnL

+$3.75

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

gopfan2CTR

Yes

Invested

$137.43

Value

$125.89

PnL

-$11.54

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

4751346CTR

Yes

Invested

$151.44

Value

$116

PnL

-$35.44

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$124

Value

$116

PnL

-$9

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

31 of 32 top traders (97%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)31 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

31 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

207 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

97% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 14

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 95% · 21

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.0%

5.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1328.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

1428.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.