Consensus PnL $979K · win rate 69% (1982–901, n=2883) · was PM monthly #894 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$979.2K
Record
1982W / 901L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 2883 settled
Batting Avg
50.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#771
Source
PM monthly #894
Trades
4,600
Markets
3,883
Volume
$47.9M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $2.5K · now 93¢ · in at 93¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $1.2K · now 12¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
- Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?No $1.1K · now 5¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
Specialties
2,281 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 67¢- NHL
+45 pts
side won 97% of 75 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +45%
- Esports
+41 pts
side won 97% of 217 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +37%
- Soccer
+36 pts
side won 96% of 208 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +36%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 83% of 12 at an average 90¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 64% of 114)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 90% of 462)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 95% of 637)
- 70¢ and up: 47%(won 99% of 1068)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.