Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $14K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$593.01

Smart Money Entry

7.3¢ → 7.5¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares143,986

Combined PnL+$596.27

No4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,291

Combined PnL-$3.26

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

180 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
4Q 4qfrankieCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$251.9	45% 188-228 (416)
one8tyfive	Noavg 93¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$13.62	61% 2120-1364 (3484)
Parz1vaICTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$273.81	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 6.7¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$183.48	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
AA aaabbbCTR	Yesavg 8.6¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$242.25	50% 447-446 (893)
solwizzo-onXCTR	Yesavg 9.5¢	$976.93	$808.97	-$167.96	67% 347-174 (521)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$179.86	$502.04	+$187.48	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 91¢	$488.49	$496.54	+$8.05	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$233.44	$266.24	+$32.8	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$4.68	$107.78	+$62.4	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
JO jole24CTR	Yesavg 6¢	$81.87	$102.34	+$20.47	44% 1031-1292 (2323)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$56.39	$50.42	-$5.97	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 83¢	$20.42	$22.76	+$2.34	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.63	-$0.03	73% 41-15 (56)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.75	$1.88	+$0.13	42% 2258-3075 (5333)

4qfrankieCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,490

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$251.9

Record

45%

188-228 (416)

one8tyfive

Invested

$2,534.32

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$13.62

Record

61%

2120-1364 (3484)

Parz1vaICTR

Yes

Invested

$1,666.47

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$273.81

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,483.52

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$183.48

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

aaabbbCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,855.11

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$242.25

Record

50%

447-446 (893)

solwizzo-onXCTR

Yes

Invested

$976.93

Value

$808.97

PnL

-$167.96

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$179.86

Value

$502.04

PnL

+$187.48

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$488.49

Value

$496.54

PnL

+$8.05

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$233.44

Value

$266.24

PnL

+$32.8

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$4.68

Value

$107.78

PnL

+$62.4

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

jole24CTR

Yes

Invested

$81.87

Value

$102.34

PnL

+$20.47

Record

44%

1031-1292 (2323)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.39

Value

$50.42

PnL

-$5.97

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$20.42

Value

$22.76

PnL

+$2.34

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$0.03

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

180 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.