Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 69% (976–439, n=1415) · was PM monthly #899 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$16.6K
Record
976W / 439L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 1415 settled
Batting Avg
45.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#775
Source
PM monthly #899
Trades
7,945
Markets
11,929
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 7 on the consensus side (86%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ETUp $837 · now 100¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2PM ETDown $681 · now 100¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ETUp $97 · now 100¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ETUp $85 · now 100¢ · in at 71¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ETUp $76 · now 63¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 2PM ETDown $62 · now 100¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ETDown $57 · now 100¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (71% of 15)
Specialties
462 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 64¢- Crypto
+11 pts
side won 75% of 462 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 27% of 26)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 61% of 66)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 71% of 160)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 90% of 210)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.