Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (77%) · Up at 100¢ · $982 held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

Total Value

$981.54

Combined PnL

-$114.34

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$892.13

Total Shares922

Combined PnL-$124.44

Down3 traders

Total Value$89.41

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$10.1

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 90.6¢	$477.43	$365.52	-$111.91	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$264.69	$265.89	+$1.2	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 79¢	$96.85	$96.52	-$0.33	57% 6774-5010 (11784)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$91.92	$84	-$7.92	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 43¢	$62.53	$71.98	+$9.45	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 57¢	$28.5	$25.25	-$3.25	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 82.2¢	$16.75	$18.02	+$1.27	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$19.58	$17.68	-$1.9	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$13.29	$14.4	+$1.11	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 79¢	$7.78	$8.22	+$0.44	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 70¢	$4.97	$5.88	+$0.91	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 92¢	$8.1	$5.15	-$2.95	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$3.5	$3.04	-$0.46	52% 91321-85769 (177090)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$477.43

Value

$365.52

PnL

-$111.91

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

hoodquant

Invested

$264.69

Value

$265.89

PnL

+$1.2

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$96.85

Value

$96.52

PnL

-$0.33

Record

57%

6774-5010 (11784)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$91.92

Value

$84

PnL

-$7.92

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$62.53

Value

$71.98

PnL

+$9.45

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$3.25

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$16.75

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$1.27

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$19.58

Value

$17.68

PnL

-$1.9

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.29

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$1.11

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$7.78

Value

$8.22

PnL

+$0.44

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$0.91

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$2.95

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$0.46

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.