Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the UAE T20s: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Afghanistan (88%) · Afghanistan at 96¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 8

Afghanistan96¢Zimbabwe4¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Afghanistan

Consensus Traders

Afghanistan 88%

Total Value

$49.2K

Combined PnL

$63.8

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 95.5¢

+36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAfghanistan at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Afghanistan

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Afghanistan96%

Zimbabwe5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Afghanistan7 traders

Total Value$49.2K

Total Shares48,221

Combined PnL+$56.13

Zimbabwe1 trader

Total Value$44.07

Total Shares192

Combined PnL+$7.66

Afghanistan — 88%Zimbabwe — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Afghanistan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAfghanistan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAfghanistan 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Afghanistan 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72	Afghanistanavg 70.3¢	$43.8K	$43.5K	-$270.57	54% 252-216 (468)
TO topdogbigboi	Afghanistanavg 69.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$122.96	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
BA Bagwell306	Afghanistanavg 72.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$79.16	58% 4067-2890 (6957)
tradecraft	Afghanistanavg 65.1¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$180.13	51% 6078-5799 (11877)
poshposh	Afghanistanavg 70.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$87.23	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
OM omnibus-076daa	Afghanistanavg 90¢	$149.81	$147.2	-$2.51	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
MI mishipolis	Afghanistanavg 68.4¢	$178.91	$120.96	+$18.05	50% 4583-4520 (9103)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Zimbabweavg 26¢	$36.41	$44.07	+$7.66	59% 3430-2345 (5775)

midwicket72

Afghanistan

Invested

$43,802.9

Value

$43.5K

PnL

-$270.57

Record

54%

252-216 (468)

topdogbigboi

Afghanistan

Invested

$1,277.71

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$122.96

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

Bagwell306

Afghanistan

Invested

$1,397.52

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$79.16

Record

58%

4067-2890 (6957)

tradecraft

Afghanistan

Invested

$1,008.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$180.13

Record

51%

6078-5799 (11877)

poshposh

Afghanistan

Invested

$1,151.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$87.23

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

omnibus-076daa

Afghanistan

Invested

$149.81

Value

$147.2

PnL

-$2.51

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

mishipolis

Afghanistan

Invested

$178.91

Value

$120.96

PnL

+$18.05

Record

50%

4583-4520 (9103)

shiifooCTR<$100

Zimbabwe

Invested

$36.41

Value

$44.07

PnL

+$7.66

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

Research grade

NeutralAfghanistan at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Afghanistan

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Afghanistan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAfghanistan 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAfghanistan 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Afghanistan 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Afghanistan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.