Nepal Premier League: Janakpur Bolts vs Pokhara Avengers

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Janakpur Bolts (50%) · Janakpur Bolts at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Janakpur Bolts>99¢Pokhara Avengers<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Janakpur Bolts

Consensus Traders

Janakpur Bolts 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$73.46

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralJanakpur Bolts at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Janakpur Bolts

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Janakpur Bolts100%

Pokhara Avengers0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Janakpur Bolts3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,114

Combined PnL+$24.64

Pokhara Avengers3 traders

Total Value$228.94

Total Shares469

Combined PnL+$48.82

Janakpur Bolts — 50%Pokhara Avengers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Janakpur Bolts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pokhara Avengers) and the top 1000 (3 on Janakpur Bolts) disagree here.

ctrJanakpur Bolts 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedPokhara Avengers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Janakpur Bolts 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 11.9¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$210.24	54% 252-216 (468)
└ Janakpur Bolts leg	Janakpur Boltsavg 75.8¢	$861.03	$1.1K	+$195.59
└ Pokhara Avengers leg	Pokhara Avengersavg 11.9¢	$1.6K	$948.33	+$14.65
poshposh	Janakpur Boltsavg 83.6¢	$993.8	$1.0K	+$25.43	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
MI mishipolisCTR	Pokhara Avengersavg 22.7¢	$164.85	$215.9	+$51.05	50% 4583-4520 (9103)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Janakpur Boltsavg 96¢	$38.4	$37.2	-$1.2	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 26.1¢	$15.38	$12.38	-$3	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
PA pauleta23<$100	Janakpur Boltsavg 84¢	$10	$11.07	+$0.42	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
probabilityCTR<$100	Pokhara Avengersavg 13¢	$0.66	$0.66	+$0.76	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$1,794.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$210.24

Record

54%

252-216 (468)

Both legs:

Janakpur Bolts$861.0375.8¢+$195.59

Pokhara Avengers$1,611.0911.9¢+$14.65

poshposh

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$993.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$25.43

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

mishipolisCTR

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$164.85

Value

$215.9

PnL

+$51.05

Record

50%

4583-4520 (9103)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$38.4

Value

$37.2

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$15.38

Value

$12.38

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

pauleta23<$100

Janakpur Bolts

Invested

$10

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$0.42

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

probabilityCTR<$100

Pokhara Avengers

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0.76

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralJanakpur Bolts at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Janakpur Bolts

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Janakpur Bolts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pokhara Avengers) and the top 1000 (3 on Janakpur Bolts) disagree here.

ctrJanakpur Bolts 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedPokhara Avengers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Janakpur Bolts 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Janakpur Bolts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.