Consensus PnL -$75K · win rate 48% (539–574, n=1113) · PM monthly #882 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-74.7K
Record
539W / 574L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 1113 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1288
Source
PM monthly #882
Record (90 d)
98/99 · 99%
Trades
864
Markets
1,162
Volume
$2.6M
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Mavericks $3.9K · now 68¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (43% of 35)
- Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under $3.7K · now 47¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Over)
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Mavericks $3.6K · now 64¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Nets)
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Nets $41 · now 28¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Mavericks)
Specialties
500 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 50¢- NBA
+50 pts
side won 100% of 209 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +50%
- Soccer
+48 pts
side won 99% of 218 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +49%
- Other Sports
+49 pts
side won 99% of 73 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +45%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 48%(won 99% of 238)
- 50–70¢: 52%(won 99% of 262)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.