Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)

10 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (45%) · Mavericks at 56¢ · $489K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks56¢Nets44¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 45%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$489.0K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 56.5¢

+11% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

10 of 22 top traders (45%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks56%

Nets44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks10 traders

Total Value$160.6K

Total Shares318,422

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Nets12 traders

Total Value$112.4K

Total Shares219,556

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Mavericks — 45%Nets — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrNets 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 69% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100	Netsavg 44¢	$165.9K	$179.1K	+$13.2K	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 44¢	$88.0K	$91.0K	+$3.0K
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 48.2¢	$77.9K	$88.1K	+$10.2K
RJ RJW1	Mavericksavg 51¢	$154.2K	$152.7K	$-1.5K	44% 117-149 (266)
GM gmpm2CTR	Netsavg 50¢	$63.5K	$65.4K	+$1.9K	54% 386-334 (720)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Netsavg 51¢	$21.7K	$21.9K	+$219.61	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Netsavg 44.4¢	$20.5K	$21.7K	+$1.2K	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 44.4¢	$13.3K	$13.8K	+$490.68
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 48.9¢	$7.2K	$7.9K	+$746.14
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Netsavg 50¢	$16.4K	$16.9K	+$493.17	50% 3041-2982 (6023)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Netsavg 50¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$229.77	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 50¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$192.84
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 48¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$36.93
nigiri99CTR	Netsavg 44.4¢	$6.8K	$7.0K	+$258.31	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
QI qinlaoban	Mavericksavg 48¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$40	48% 489-523 (1012)
VeryLucky888	Mavericksavg 48.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$0	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Mavericksavg 48.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$22.25	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 48.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$9
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 49.7¢	$870	$901.25	+$31.25
NM NM-PARB<$100	Mavericksavg 48.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$20.75	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 48.8¢	$1.0K	$993.76	-$6.75
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 49.7¢	$745	$772.5	+$27.5
DO DolphinBaller	Mavericksavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10	44% 124-157 (281)
RN1ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 53.6¢	$547.42	$552.19	+$4.77	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 53.6¢	$313.17	$312.71	-$0.46
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 45.5¢	$234.25	$239.48	+$5.23
DA darkumbreon88	Mavericksavg 49¢	$440.97	$436.47	-$4.5	64% 2155-1193 (3348)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Netsavg 50¢	$766	$435.22	-$21.85	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 50¢	$339.67	$312.24	-$22.75
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 53.6¢	$122.08	$122.97	+$0.89
FL Flaznorp	Mavericksavg 48.5¢	$402.05	$402.07	+$0.01	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Netsavg 51¢	$243.3	$245.69	+$2.39	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
AN Anon455CTR	Netsavg 42.5¢	$228.67	$238.87	+$10.2	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Netsavg 50¢	$200	$206	+$6	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Netsavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	56% 195-152 (347)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 50¢	$100	$103	+$3
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 50¢	$100	$97	-$3
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Netsavg 43¢	$143.84	$155.55	+$11.71	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
LI LimousinCTR	Netsavg 46¢	$117.76	$129.28	+$11.52	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Mavericksavg 49.5¢	$118.37	$118.03	-$0.34	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 49.5¢	$78.18	$76.63	-$1.55
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 50¢	$40.19	$41.4	+$1.21
65 6512395314597884	Mavericksavg 49¢	$98	$109	+$11	51% 5685-5538 (11223)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$165,853.18

Value

$179.1K

PnL

+$13.2K

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

Both legs:

Nets$87,999.9144¢+$3.0K

Mavericks$77,853.2748.2¢+$10.2K

RJW1

Mavericks

Invested

$154,174.47

Value

$152.7K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

44%

117-149 (266)

gmpm2CTR

Nets

Invested

$63,504.86

Value

$65.4K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

54%

386-334 (720)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Nets

Invested

$21,702.88

Value

$21.9K

PnL

+$219.61

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$20,460.43

Value

$21.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Nets$13,296.7944.4¢+$490.68

Mavericks$7,163.6448.9¢+$746.14

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Nets

Invested

$16,439.17

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$493.17

Record

50%

3041-2982 (6023)

hi774cARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$9,972.95

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$229.77

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

Both legs:

Nets$6,42850¢+$192.84

Mavericks$3,544.9648¢+$36.93

nigiri99CTR

Nets

Invested

$6,779.47

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$258.31

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

qinlaoban

Mavericks

Invested

$3,840

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$40

Record

48%

489-523 (1012)

VeryLucky888

Mavericks

Invested

$1,940

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

GC-PARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1,897.47

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$22.25

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Both legs:

Mavericks$1,027.4748.9¢-$9

Nets$87049.7¢+$31.25

NM-PARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1,745.51

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$20.75

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

Both legs:

Mavericks$1,000.5248.8¢-$6.75

Nets$74549.7¢+$27.5

DolphinBaller

Mavericks

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10

Record

44%

124-157 (281)

RN1ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$547.42

Value

$552.19

PnL

+$4.77

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Mavericks$313.1753.6¢-$0.46

Nets$234.2545.5¢+$5.23

darkumbreon88

Mavericks

Invested

$440.97

Value

$436.47

PnL

-$4.5

Record

64%

2155-1193 (3348)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$766

Value

$435.22

PnL

-$21.85

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Nets$339.6750¢-$22.75

Mavericks$122.0853.6¢+$0.89

Flaznorp

Mavericks

Invested

$402.05

Value

$402.07

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Nets

Invested

$243.3

Value

$245.69

PnL

+$2.39

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

Anon455CTR

Nets

Invested

$228.67

Value

$238.87

PnL

+$10.2

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Nets

Invested

$200

Value

$206

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-152 (347)

Both legs:

Nets$10050¢+$3

Mavericks$10050¢-$3

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nets

Invested

$143.84

Value

$155.55

PnL

+$11.71

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

LimousinCTR

Nets

Invested

$117.76

Value

$129.28

PnL

+$11.52

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$118.37

Value

$118.03

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Both legs:

Mavericks$78.1849.5¢-$1.55

Nets$40.1950¢+$1.21

6512395314597884

Mavericks

Invested

$98

Value

$109

PnL

+$11

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

10 of 22 top traders (45%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrNets 67% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 69% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.