Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)

8 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (40%) · Nets at 56¢ · $114K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks45¢Nets55¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 40%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$114.2K

Combined PnL

-$594.35

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 55.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

8 of 20 top traders (40%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks45%

Nets56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks12 traders

Total Value$32.3K

Total Shares71,826

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Nets8 traders

Total Value$38.1K

Total Shares69,354

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Mavericks — 60%Nets — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Netsavg 52.6¢	$36.0K	$36.8K	+$769.35	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 52.6¢	$21.1K	$22.3K	+$1.1K
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 45.7¢	$14.9K	$14.5K	-$378.34
RO ropetardCTR	Mavericksavg 47.4¢	$35.3K	$15.6K	$-2.2K	65% 114-62 (176)
nigiri99	Netsavg 46.9¢	$13.0K	$15.3K	+$2.4K	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
GM gmpm2	Netsavg 55¢	$12.8K	$12.4K	-$348.15	54% 386-334 (720)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Netsavg 53¢	$8.6K	$9.1K	+$407.84	50% 3040-2982 (6022)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Mavericksavg 47¢	$6.8K	$6.6K	-$216.35	48% 520-559 (1079)
nehcnehcCTR	Mavericksavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$246.24	61% 4522-2835 (7357)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Mavericksavg 46.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$10.13	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 52.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$57.66
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 46.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$47.54
GC GC-PARB<$100	Mavericksavg 46.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$10.5	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 46.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$57.75
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 53.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$47.25
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Mavericksavg 54¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$354.44	55% 3821-3102 (6923)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Netsavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$117.62	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 49¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$138.89
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 46.7¢	$445.96	$424.69	-$21.27
PL pltrkr111CTR	Mavericksavg 46¢	$1,000	$989.13	-$10.87	55% 826-682 (1508)
HI hi774c	Netsavg 52¢	$883.99	$926.49	+$42.5	46% 5627-6537 (12164)
VeryLucky888CTR	Mavericksavg 47.5¢	$1.4K	$890	-$26.57	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Mavericksavg 46¢	$740.08	$715.95	-$24.13	54% 5365-4576 (9941)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Netsavg 54¢	$495	$500	+$5	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 54¢	$270	$277.5	+$7.5
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 45¢	$225	$222.5	-$2.5
SE sentrioCTR	Mavericksavg 46¢	$442.39	$448.63	+$6.24	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 45.5¢	$598.53	$359.77	-$0.02	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 45.5¢	$234.78	$229.62	-$4.92
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 53.8¢	$126.19	$130.15	+$4.9
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 45.5¢	$348.94	$342.13	-$6.88	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
LI LightParadox	Netsavg 47¢	$235.24	$273.6	+$38.36	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Mavericksavg 46¢	$400	$182	-$2	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Mavericksavg 45.5¢	$160.91	$157.39	-$3.52	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 53.3¢	$62.75	$55.05	-$7.7	49% 8559-8732 (17291)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Mavericksavg 45.4¢	$79.37	$49.9	+$1.29	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 45.4¢	$27.7	$27.15	-$0.36
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 53¢	$21.71	$22.76	+$1.66
MA MadridTime<$100	Netsavg 49.7¢	$40.37	$44.28	+$3.91	47% 2130-2385 (4515)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$36,048.39

Value

$36.8K

PnL

+$769.35

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

Both legs:

Nets$21,148.7352.6¢+$1.1K

Mavericks$14,899.6545.7¢-$378.34

ropetardCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$35,334.35

Value

$15.6K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

65%

114-62 (176)

nigiri99

Nets

Invested

$12,974.22

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

gmpm2

Nets

Invested

$12,765.5

Value

$12.4K

PnL

-$348.15

Record

54%

386-334 (720)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Nets

Invested

$8,646.1

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$407.84

Record

50%

3040-2982 (6022)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$6,779

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$216.35

Record

48%

520-559 (1079)

nehcnehcCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$4,728.89

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$246.24

Record

61%

4522-2835 (7357)

NM-PARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2,237.41

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$10.13

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

Both legs:

Nets$1,076.4552.7¢+$57.66

Mavericks$1,160.9646.4¢-$47.54

GC-PARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2,183

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

Both legs:

Mavericks$1,14846.9¢-$57.75

Nets$1,03553.1¢+$47.25

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$2,251.78

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$354.44

Record

55%

3821-3102 (6923)

VenusianARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$1,492.97

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$117.62

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

Both legs:

Nets$1,047.0149¢+$138.89

Mavericks$445.9646.7¢-$21.27

pltrkr111CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,000

Value

$989.13

PnL

-$10.87

Record

55%

826-682 (1508)

hi774c

Nets

Invested

$883.99

Value

$926.49

PnL

+$42.5

Record

46%

5627-6537 (12164)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,425

Value

$890

PnL

-$26.57

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

SunlineTickerCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$740.08

Value

$715.95

PnL

-$24.13

Record

54%

5365-4576 (9941)

Anon455ARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$495

Value

$500

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

Both legs:

Nets$27054¢+$7.5

Mavericks$22545¢-$2.5

sentrioCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$442.39

Value

$448.63

PnL

+$6.24

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$598.53

Value

$359.77

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Both legs:

Mavericks$234.7845.5¢-$4.92

Nets$126.1953.8¢+$4.9

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$348.94

Value

$342.13

PnL

-$6.88

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

LightParadox

Nets

Invested

$235.24

Value

$273.6

PnL

+$38.36

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$400

Value

$182

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

SnakeBallCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$160.91

Value

$157.39

PnL

-$3.52

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

RLWGCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$62.75

Value

$55.05

PnL

-$7.7

Record

49%

8559-8732 (17291)

Pan9XARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$79.37

Value

$49.9

PnL

+$1.29

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

Both legs:

Mavericks$27.745.4¢-$0.36

Nets$21.7153¢+$1.66

MadridTime<$100

Nets

Invested

$40.37

Value

$44.28

PnL

+$3.91

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nets

8 of 20 top traders (40%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.