Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)

5 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (28%) · Mavericks at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks>99¢Nets<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 28%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$149.07

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 99.6¢

+61% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks100%

Nets0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,468

Combined PnL+$114.13

Nets13 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,645

Combined PnL-$263.2

Mavericks — 28%Nets — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RJ RJW1	Mavericksavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$10.51	44% 117-149 (266)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Netsavg 44.1¢	$1.4K	$993.64	-$371.18	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 44.1¢	$857.06	$515.17	-$341.89
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 78¢	$507.76	$478.47	-$29.29
RN1	Mavericksavg 73¢	$616.92	$763.24	+$146.32	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Netsavg 45¢	$449.59	$464.57	+$14.99	48% 521-567 (1088)
65 6512395314597884	Mavericksavg 70.8¢	$363	$337	-$26	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
GC GC-PCTR	Netsavg 46¢	$234.16	$236.8	+$2.64	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
NM NM-PCTR	Netsavg 46¢	$231.13	$233.64	+$2.51	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
VeryLucky888CTR	Netsavg 46¢	$230	$227.5	-$2.5	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Netsavg 41.8¢	$205.93	$155.26	-$50.67	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
LI LimousinCTR	Netsavg 45¢	$115.2	$119.04	+$3.84	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
38 38791873984189CTR	Netsavg 42.7¢	$173.63	$96.75	-$76.88	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
TA takeormake<$100	Mavericksavg 74¢	$76.96	$93.08	+$16.12	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Netsavg 18¢	$90	$47.5	-$42.5	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
QI qinlaobanCTR<$100	Netsavg 46¢	$40.48	$40.92	+$0.44	48% 489-523 (1012)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Netsavg 38.5¢	$33.66	$34.09	+$0.44	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 99.2¢	$30.41	$18.61	-$11.8	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Netsavg 42¢	$8.61	$9.53	+$0.92	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Netsavg 29.3¢	$123.23	$6.83	-$116.4	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Netsavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.28	-$0.03	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

RJW1

Mavericks

Invested

$1,156.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.51

Record

44%

117-149 (266)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$1,364.82

Value

$993.64

PnL

-$371.18

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Nets$857.0644.1¢-$341.89

Mavericks$507.7678¢-$29.29

RN1

Mavericks

Invested

$616.92

Value

$763.24

PnL

+$146.32

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Nets

Invested

$449.59

Value

$464.57

PnL

+$14.99

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

6512395314597884

Mavericks

Invested

$363

Value

$337

PnL

-$26

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

GC-PCTR

Nets

Invested

$234.16

Value

$236.8

PnL

+$2.64

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

NM-PCTR

Nets

Invested

$231.13

Value

$233.64

PnL

+$2.51

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nets

Invested

$230

Value

$227.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

FlaznorpCTR

Nets

Invested

$205.93

Value

$155.26

PnL

-$50.67

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

LimousinCTR

Nets

Invested

$115.2

Value

$119.04

PnL

+$3.84

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

38791873984189CTR

Nets

Invested

$173.63

Value

$96.75

PnL

-$76.88

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

takeormake<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$76.96

Value

$93.08

PnL

+$16.12

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

Anon455CTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$90

Value

$47.5

PnL

-$42.5

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

qinlaobanCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$40.48

Value

$40.92

PnL

+$0.44

Record

48%

489-523 (1012)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$33.66

Value

$34.09

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$30.41

Value

$18.61

PnL

-$11.8

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

VenusianCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$8.61

Value

$9.53

PnL

+$0.92

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Nets

Invested

$123.23

Value

$6.83

PnL

-$116.4

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.