Consensus PnL -$1.2M · win rate 40% (14–21, n=35) · was PM monthly #28 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-1.2M
Record
14W / 21L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 35 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2472
Source
PM monthly #28
Record (90 d)
14/30 · 47%
Trades
304
Markets
38
Volume
$12.8M
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-11-03?Yes $43K · now 63¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (28% of 32)
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-11-03?Yes $18K · now 5¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Sporting CP win on 2026-11-03?No $17K · now 27¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (42% of 62)
- Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk $10K · now 80¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (78% of 21)
Specialties
30 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 54¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where ripley86alien's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 42% of 26 at an average 53¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 22% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 53% of 15)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.