Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 17 of 53 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-11-03?

17 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (32%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $343K held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 32%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$343.4K

Combined PnL

$34.3K

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 53 top traders (32%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$159.1K

Total Shares266,877

Combined PnL+$701.57

No36 traders

Total Value$166.2K

Total Shares267,123

Combined PnL+$33.6K

Yes — 32%No — 68%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 24

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RI ripley86alienCTR	Yesavg 62.6¢	$64.2K	$64.0K	-$142.07	40% 10-15 (25)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 54.8¢	$34.4K	$56.5K	+$22.1K	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
HO hovistomaradonaCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$34.3K	$36.8K	+$936.5	56% 14-11 (25)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 60.9¢	$26.6K	$27.3K	+$696.23	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
CH ch27erCTR	Yesavg 64.2¢	$25.5K	$24.8K	-$660.91	67% 16-8 (24)
yabanci	Noavg 37¢	$19.6K	$19.9K	+$264.88	50% 84-84 (168)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 30.6¢	$13.2K	$17.9K	+$4.6K	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
└ No leg	Noavg 38.4¢	$6.5K	$13.8K	+$7.3K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.6¢	$6.7K	$4.1K	$-2.7K
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 55.6¢	$12.9K	$15.0K	+$2.0K	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 41.3¢	$5.3K	$12.5K	+$7.2K	52% 830-771 (1601)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 40.9¢	$13.1K	$12.0K	$-1.1K	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 44.9¢	$6.5K	$5.9K	-$204.58	71% 6981-2792 (9773)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 40.3¢	$2.7K	$5.5K	+$2.9K	54% 906-787 (1693)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 40.6¢	$6.4K	$5.5K	-$442.22	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
CA Cannae	Noavg 39.7¢	$5.3K	$5.0K	-$298.26	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
RN1	Noavg 55.9¢	$4.1K	$4.7K	+$559.45	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Noavg 40¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$50	32% 753-1598 (2351)
ZX zxc368	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$1.95	98% 13990-239 (14229)
LI Limousin	Noavg 82.4¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$6.56	56% 942-736 (1678)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 49.5¢	$3.4K	$2.2K	+$300.95	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
JU Justluck9CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$31.96	41% 99-140 (239)
MR MrDouche	Noavg 45¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$21.5	82% 1706-380 (2086)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 81.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$5.86	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
ZH zhuz632CTR	Yesavg 64.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$38.29	50% 251-248 (499)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 45¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$75	53% 5821-5227 (11048)
fraj0laCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$46.3	64% 241-138 (379)

ripley86alienCTR

Yes

Invested

$64,153.17

Value

$64.0K

PnL

-$142.07

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

Flaznorp

Invested

$34,418.69

Value

$56.5K

PnL

+$22.1K

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

hovistomaradonaCTR

Yes

Invested

$34,336.08

Value

$36.8K

PnL

+$936.5

Record

56%

14-11 (25)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$26,627.52

Value

$27.3K

PnL

+$696.23

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

ch27erCTR

Yes

Invested

$25,462.5

Value

$24.8K

PnL

-$660.91

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

yabanci

Invested

$19,601.05

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$264.88

Record

50%

84-84 (168)

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$13,229.36

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

Both legs:

No$6,498.5438.4¢+$7.3K

Yes$6,730.8230.6¢$-2.7K

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$12,902.71

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

MadridTime

Invested

$5,281.12

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$7.2K

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$13,094.71

Value

$12.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$6,506.77

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$204.58

Record

71%

6981-2792 (9773)

LightParadox

Invested

$2,680.08

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$6,383.54

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$442.22

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

Cannae

Invested

$5,343.33

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$298.26

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

RN1

Invested

$4,105.6

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$559.45

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$50

Record

32%

753-1598 (2351)

zxc368

Invested

$3,902.69

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.95

Record

98%

13990-239 (14229)

Limousin

Invested

$3,387.58

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$6.56

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

38791873984189

Invested

$3,350.49

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$300.95

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Justluck9CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,917.69

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$31.96

Record

41%

99-140 (239)

MrDouche

Invested

$1,935

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$21.5

Record

82%

1706-380 (2086)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$1,569.53

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$5.86

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

zhuz632CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,475.16

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$38.29

Record

50%

251-248 (499)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$75

Record

53%

5821-5227 (11048)

fraj0laCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$46.3

Record

64%

241-138 (379)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 53 top traders (32%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 24

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.