Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-11-03?

26 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold No (72%) · No at 75¢ · $142K held · ended Nov 3

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 72%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$142.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 74.5¢

+4% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 36 top traders (72%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$58.5K

Total Shares215,093

Combined PnL$-3.0K

No26 traders

Total Value$74.4K

Total Shares100,960

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Yes — 28%No — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MigRodrCTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$22.3K	$22.0K	-$314.52	22% 15-52 (67)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 71.3¢	$20.4K	$20.9K	+$558.33	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
RI ripley86alienCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$18.9K	$17.6K	$-1.3K	40% 10-15 (25)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$14.2K	$13.2K	-$980.89	50% 6072-6173 (12245)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 72¢	$12.9K	$13.1K	+$173.83	54% 906-787 (1693)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72.3¢	$13.5K	$10.8K	+$134.97	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$5.8K	$5.4K	-$400	52% 5926-5526 (11452)
StudyPrediction	Noavg 70¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$201	53% 4654-4063 (8717)
GO goldmyname	Noavg 72¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$33.3	59% 161-110 (271)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 72¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$46.97	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$48.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$95.04
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 72¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$52.51	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$26.81	57% 1954-1449 (3403)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$61.93
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.5¢	$880.17	$791.43	-$88.74
CA Cannae	Noavg 71.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$58.59	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
HI hi774c	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$30.44	50% 4917-4837 (9754)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15	53% 5821-5227 (11048)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$30	68% 2724-1308 (4032)
P1 P1kaso	Noavg 73¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$10	63% 763-457 (1220)
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814	Noavg 71¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$35.42	46% 211-245 (456)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$836.93	$826.06	-$10.88	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.5¢	$627.09	$626.91	-$0.18
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30¢	$209.85	$199.15	-$10.7
VE Venusian	Noavg 71.6¢	$694.01	$673.96	-$20.05	53% 916-813 (1729)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 30.9¢	$674.6	$669.67	-$4.94	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.9¢	$344.43	$351.07	+$6.64
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$330.17	$318.59	-$11.58
MA MadridTime	Noavg 72¢	$564.71	$572.32	+$7.61	52% 830-771 (1601)
HRTrading	Noavg 72¢	$560.39	$567.94	+$7.55	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
nigiri99	Noavg 71¢	$559.48	$563.42	+$3.94	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
RN1	Noavg 70¢	$490	$493.5	+$3.5	53% 59038-51355 (110393)

MigRodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$22,293.1

Value

$22.0K

PnL

-$314.52

Record

22%

15-52 (67)

Flaznorp

Invested

$20,376.52

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$558.33

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

ripley86alienCTR

Yes

Invested

$18,881.32

Value

$17.6K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$14,170.12

Value

$13.2K

PnL

-$980.89

Record

50%

6072-6173 (12245)

LightParadox

Invested

$12,901.2

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$173.83

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$13,510.99

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$134.97

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,799.99

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$400

Record

52%

5926-5526 (11452)

StudyPrediction

Invested

$4,689.94

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$201

Record

53%

4654-4063 (8717)

goldmyname

Invested

$4,795.2

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$33.3

Record

59%

161-110 (271)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$4,568.22

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$46.97

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

Both legs:

No$3,461.1572¢+$48.07

Yes$1,107.0829.5¢-$95.04

LuckyLoo

Invested

$3,781.03

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$52.51

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$2,742.65

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$26.81

Record

57%

1954-1449 (3403)

Both legs:

No$1,862.4871.1¢+$61.93

Yes$880.1729.5¢-$88.74

Cannae

Invested

$2,258.63

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$58.59

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

hi774c

Invested

$2,192

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$30.44

Record

50%

4917-4837 (9754)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5821-5227 (11048)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$30

Record

68%

2724-1308 (4032)

P1kaso

Invested

$1,459.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$10

Record

63%

763-457 (1220)

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Invested

$1,257.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$35.42

Record

46%

211-245 (456)

NotJumpARB<$100

Invested

$836.93

Value

$826.06

PnL

-$10.88

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

Both legs:

No$627.0971.5¢-$0.18

Yes$209.8530¢-$10.7

Venusian

Invested

$694.01

Value

$673.96

PnL

-$20.05

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$674.6

Value

$669.67

PnL

-$4.94

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

Both legs:

Yes$344.4330.9¢+$6.64

No$330.1771¢-$11.58

MadridTime

Invested

$564.71

Value

$572.32

PnL

+$7.61

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

HRTrading

Invested

$560.39

Value

$567.94

PnL

+$7.55

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

nigiri99

Invested

$559.48

Value

$563.42

PnL

+$3.94

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

RN1

Invested

$490

Value

$493.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 36 top traders (72%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.