Will Sporting CP win on 2026-11-03?

4 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 53¢ · $56K held · ends Nov 3

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$55.9K

Combined PnL

-$161.17

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 20 top traders (20%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$34.4K

Total Shares66,142

Combined PnL-$96.61

Yes16 traders

Total Value$21.6K

Total Shares43,934

Combined PnL-$64.56

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 79% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradona	Noavg 52.9¢	$30.7K	$30.2K	-$218.18	56% 14-11 (25)
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$153.05	54% 86-72 (158)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$39.32	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
SU surfandturf	Noavg 51¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$120.52	50% 316-315 (631)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 47.3¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$16.7	71% 6979-2788 (9767)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$4.2K	$3.7K	-$28.75	50% 27131-27060 (54191)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Yesavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15	53% 5818-5225 (11043)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$959.99	$949.99	-$10	52% 1273-1167 (2440)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 47.1¢	$5.0K	$578.78	+$94.23	58% 44437-32355 (76792)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$489.15	$499.55	+$10.48	53% 16363-14532 (30895)
leflaiveCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$361.44	$361.44	-$3.76	42% 1205-1642 (2847)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 47.1¢	$222.73	$224.68	+$1.95	46% 8222-9595 (17817)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$137.51	$123.29	+$2.93	57% 18305-13557 (31862)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 66.1¢	$169.31	$119.8	-$49.51	48% 6887-7538 (14425)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$51.53	$52.63	-$0.55	50% 25211-24910 (50121)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$41.03	$41.47	+$0.44	64% 1844-1024 (2868)
claudionetotrader<$100	Noavg 52¢	$25	$25.24	+$0.24	56% 1347-1067 (2414)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$19.03	$19.37	+$0.81	51% 7310-7059 (14369)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$4.8	+$0.05	52% 8430-7691 (16121)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$2.85	$2.85	-$0.03	45% 13592-16514 (30106)

hovistomaradona

Invested

$30,683.12

Value

$30.2K

PnL

-$218.18

Record

56%

14-11 (25)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$153.05

Record

54%

86-72 (158)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,305.9

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$39.32

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

surfandturf

Invested

$4,097.64

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$120.52

Record

50%

316-315 (631)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,771.69

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$16.7

Record

71%

6979-2788 (9767)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,193.9

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$28.75

Record

50%

27131-27060 (54191)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,410

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5818-5225 (11043)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR

Yes

Invested

$959.99

Value

$949.99

PnL

-$10

Record

52%

1273-1167 (2440)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,992.64

Value

$578.78

PnL

+$94.23

Record

58%

44437-32355 (76792)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$489.15

Value

$499.55

PnL

+$10.48

Record

53%

16363-14532 (30895)

leflaiveCTR

Yes

Invested

$361.44

Value

$361.44

PnL

-$3.76

Record

42%

1205-1642 (2847)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$222.73

Value

$224.68

PnL

+$1.95

Record

46%

8222-9595 (17817)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.51

Value

$123.29

PnL

+$2.93

Record

57%

18305-13557 (31862)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$169.31

Value

$119.8

PnL

-$49.51

Record

48%

6887-7538 (14425)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.53

Value

$52.63

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

25211-24910 (50121)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.03

Value

$41.47

PnL

+$0.44

Record

64%

1844-1024 (2868)

claudionetotrader<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$0.24

Record

56%

1347-1067 (2414)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$19.03

Value

$19.37

PnL

+$0.81

Record

51%

7310-7059 (14369)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

8430-7691 (16121)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

45%

13592-16514 (30106)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 20 top traders (20%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 86% · 7

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 79% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.