Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$379.24

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,280

Combined PnL+$17.21

Yes8 traders

Total Value$84.86

Total Shares39,212

Combined PnL-$396.45

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

72 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 98.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$17.21	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
RO roscoffCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$329.79	$38.72	-$281.29	54% 166-140 (306)
FL flawfenceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$62.91	$20.13	-$42.78	46% 271-319 (590)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$37.58	$12.05	-$25.59	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$9.25	$9.25	-$24.58	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$3.21	-$8.54	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$14.37	$0.93	-$13.21	65% 1075-583 (1658)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.3	$0.3	-$0.8	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.2	$0.26	+$0.33	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,249.73

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$17.21

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

roscoffCTR

Yes

Invested

$329.79

Value

$38.72

PnL

-$281.29

Record

54%

166-140 (306)

flawfenceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.91

Value

$20.13

PnL

-$42.78

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.58

Value

$12.05

PnL

-$25.59

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.25

Value

$9.25

PnL

-$24.58

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$8.54

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.37

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$13.21

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.8

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.33

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

72 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.