Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 14 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (93%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $6K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 93%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

1.5¢ → 1.4¢

-9% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares676,352

Combined PnL$-4.8K

No1 trader

Total Value$688.37

Total Shares694

Combined PnL+$9.5

Yes — 93%No — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

181 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BurstedBubbleCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$4.3K	$2.2K	$-2.0K	— 4-5 (9)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.3K	$1.4K	$-2.0K	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
RO roscoffCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$600.38	54% 166-140 (306)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 97.6¢	$678.87	$688.37	+$9.5	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
Fuentes31CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$135.86	$163.58	+$27.73	53% 663-586 (1249)
FL flawfenceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$62.91	$68.45	+$5.54	46% 271-319 (590)
PL plumbisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$92.58	$61.72	-$27	57% 51-39 (90)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$59.55	$54.43	-$5.63	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$59.08	$52.45	-$6.63	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
FrozenParasiteCTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$6.96	$45.24	-$96.64	55% 463-373 (836)
nicoco89CTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$136.42	$36.06	-$100.36	65% 1075-583 (1658)
archaicCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$45.38	$14.37	-$31.01	85% 1906-339 (2245)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$13.3	+$1.14	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$1.2	$1.2	+$0.1	7% 14-187 (201)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$651.36	$0.76	+$0.07	72% 8306-3183 (11489)

BurstedBubbleCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,269.76

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

—

4-5 (9)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,258.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

roscoffCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,041.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$600.38

Record

54%

166-140 (306)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$678.87

Value

$688.37

PnL

+$9.5

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Fuentes31CTR

Yes

Invested

$135.86

Value

$163.58

PnL

+$27.73

Record

53%

663-586 (1249)

flawfenceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.91

Value

$68.45

PnL

+$5.54

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

plumbisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.58

Value

$61.72

PnL

-$27

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.55

Value

$54.43

PnL

-$5.63

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.08

Value

$52.45

PnL

-$6.63

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

FrozenParasiteCTR

Yes

Invested

$6.96

Value

$45.24

PnL

-$96.64

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

nicoco89CTR

Yes

Invested

$136.42

Value

$36.06

PnL

-$100.36

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

archaicCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.38

Value

$14.37

PnL

-$31.01

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$1.14

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

14-187 (201)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$651.36

Value

$0.76

PnL

+$0.07

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

181 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3910.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

4010.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.