Consensus PnL -$64K · win rate 60% (12–8, n=20) · was PM monthly #832 · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-64.1K
Record
12W / 8L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 20 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1185
Source
PM monthly #832
Trades
6
Markets
38
Volume
$264.0K
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 17 on the consensus side (71%)- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.8K · now 75¢ · in at 73¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.3K · now 75¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (56% of 39)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $2.2K · now 73¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (62% of 42)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $2.1K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.1K · now 71¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $2.1K · now 72¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (68% of 69)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $1.8K · now 36¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (79% of 29)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $1.2K · now 40¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
Specialties
12 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 80¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where segment3's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 0% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 50% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 75%(won 100% of 9)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.