Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 22 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

22 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (79%) · Yes at 36¢ · $89K held · ends Dec 31

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$89.4K

Combined PnL

$-20.5K

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 36¢

-35% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 36%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 28 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$37.2K

Total Shares56,572

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Yes22 traders

Total Value$51.6K

Total Shares147,309

Combined PnL$-25.0K

No — 21%Yes — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

1951h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 82% · 11

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 87% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 79% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PI pilimili	Noavg 62.6¢	$25.0K	$26.4K	+$550.2	62% 151-91 (242)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 64.9¢	$29.5K	$16.2K	$-13.3K	60% 407-274 (681)
classifiedCTR	Yesavg 40.9¢	$9.3K	$8.5K	-$737.28	58% 844-614 (1458)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 40.2¢	$3.4K	$5.4K	+$2.0K	69% 156-69 (225)
ET ethBELIVER	Noavg 39¢	$3.0K	$5.1K	+$1.9K	40% 25-37 (62)
eCashCTR	Yesavg 49.1¢	$6.8K	$4.9K	$-1.6K	68% 331-155 (486)
CarCTR	Yesavg 45.1¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$111.11	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
SardinianshepherdCTR	Yesavg 66.1¢	$5.2K	$2.8K	$-2.3K	65% 929-506 (1435)
SK skibabibaCTR	Yesavg 61¢	$4.3K	$2.4K	$-1.7K	87% 95-14 (109)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 64.1¢	$4.0K	$2.3K	$-1.8K	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
SE segment3CTR	Yesavg 62¢	$3.1K	$1.8K	$-1.3K	57% 12-9 (21)
0X 0x498d2...CTR	Yesavg 39.7¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$112.34	— 7-3 (10)
M4 m4dsCTR	Yesavg 62.1¢	$3.0K	$1.7K	$-1.2K	72% 411-157 (568)
kekkoneCTR	Yesavg 44.9¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$247.93	73% 1124-417 (1541)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchantCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$29.66	55% 79-65 (144)
MEPPCTR	Yesavg 59.7¢	$885.51	$837.64	-$47.87	64% 633-352 (985)
Tenebrus7CTR	Yesavg 51.2¢	$757.38	$702.24	-$55.15	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
cambridgeisaacARB<$100	Yesavg 68.3¢	$752.12	$591.4	-$175.11	57% 1114-837 (1951)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.3¢	$625	$320.26	-$281.86
└ No leg	Noavg 36.5¢	$150	$271.14	+$106.76
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 48.6¢	$653.01	$470.06	-$162.8	65% 862-465 (1327)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 65.1¢	$933.41	$231.61	-$314.94	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 40.9¢	$159.21	$156.98	-$2.23	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
PorxCTR	Yesavg 60.2¢	$154.12	$148.75	-$5.38	66% 1482-769 (2251)
PU PutsOnPeace	Noavg 48¢	$96	$132	+$29	66% 955-482 (1437)
tetraseCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$166.5	$116.55	-$46.62	61% 839-544 (1383)
SeutervoinenCTR	Yesavg 59¢	$195.28	$115.85	-$72.82	85% 312-57 (369)

pilimili

Invested

$25,049.98

Value

$26.4K

PnL

+$550.2

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$29,454.07

Value

$16.2K

PnL

$-13.3K

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

classifiedCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,268.09

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$737.28

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$3,391.41

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

ethBELIVER

Invested

$3,001.15

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

40%

25-37 (62)

eCashCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,819.03

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,312.58

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$111.11

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

SardinianshepherdCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,212.13

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

65%

929-506 (1435)

skibabibaCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,269.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,035.42

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

segment3CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,100

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

0x498d2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,987.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$112.34

Record

—

7-3 (10)

m4dsCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,972.92

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

72%

411-157 (568)

kekkoneCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,524.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$247.93

Record

73%

1124-417 (1541)

SquirrelTheMerchantCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,091.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$29.66

Record

55%

79-65 (144)

MEPPCTR

Yes

Invested

$885.51

Value

$837.64

PnL

-$47.87

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

Tenebrus7CTR

Yes

Invested

$757.38

Value

$702.24

PnL

-$55.15

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

cambridgeisaacARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$752.12

Value

$591.4

PnL

-$175.11

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

Both legs:

Invested

$653.01

Value

$470.06

PnL

-$162.8

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$933.41

Value

$231.61

PnL

-$314.94

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$159.21

Value

$156.98

PnL

-$2.23

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

PorxCTR

Yes

Invested

$154.12

Value

$148.75

PnL

-$5.38

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

PutsOnPeace

Invested

$96

Value

$132

PnL

+$29

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

tetraseCTR

Yes

Invested

$166.5

Value

$116.55

PnL

-$46.62

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

SeutervoinenCTR

Yes

Invested

$195.28

Value

$115.85

PnL

-$72.82

Record

85%

312-57 (369)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 36%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 28 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

1951h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 82% · 11

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 87% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 79% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.0%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$170.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

270.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.