Consensus PnL $150K · win rate 51% (717–681, n=1398) · was PM monthly #956 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$149.7K
Record
717W / 681L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 1398 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1783
Source
PM monthly #956
Record (90 d)
317/335 · 95%
Trades
340
Markets
1,561
Volume
$2.3M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Dota 2: OG vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - EPL Masters PlayoffsOG $2.1K · now 77¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (83% of 13)
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ATeam Falcons $1.7K · now 41¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (54% of 108)
Specialties
763 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 50¢- Esports
+46 pts
side won 97% of 652 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +48%
- Soccer
+46 pts
side won 96% of 53 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +47%
- NHL
+50 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +44%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 87% of 52)
- 30–50¢: 43%(won 96% of 325)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 98% of 325)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 100% of 61)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.