Dota 2: OG vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold OG (100%) · OG at 75¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
OG
11
OG 100%
$4.5K
-$88.07
74.2¢ → 74.5¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralOG at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on OG. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP spartachio | OGavg 74.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$106.85 | 48% 704-761 (1465) |
OD Oddstorm | OGavg 75¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$59.8 | 48% 7159-7651 (14810) |
 VeryLucky888 | OGavg 71.2¢ | $712 | $442.11 | +$34.78 | 58% 43600-31711 (75311) |
VO Volodyabandit | OGavg 74¢ | $350 | $352.32 | +$2.32 | 75% 276-90 (366) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | OGavg 74¢ | $296 | $284 | -$12 | 51% 1592-1534 (3126) |
38 38791873984189 | OGavg 69.5¢ | $692.4 | $125.36 | +$43.22 | 47% 13002-14566 (27568) |
OM omnibus-076daa | OGavg 76¢ | $110.08 | $102.84 | -$7.24 | 50% 19815-20158 (39973) |
 GOLDCRYPT12 | OGavg 70.4¢ | $119.96 | $90.01 | +$17.49 | 51% 977-924 (1901) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | OGavg 73.8¢ | $14.75 | $14.9 | +$0.15 | 52% 7639-6913 (14552) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | OGavg 74¢ | $2.36 | $2.26 | -$0.1 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
 HRTrading<$100 | OGavg 74¢ | $1.11 | $1.07 | -$0.05 | 53% 6371-5759 (12130) |
Invested
$2,106.88
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$106.85
Record
48%
704-761 (1465)
Invested
$1,121.25
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$59.8
Record
48%
7159-7651 (14810)
VeryLucky888Invested
$712
Value
$442.11
PnL
+$34.78
Record
58%
43600-31711 (75311)
Invested
$350
Value
$352.32
PnL
+$2.32
Record
75%
276-90 (366)
Invested
$296
Value
$284
PnL
-$12
Record
51%
1592-1534 (3126)
Invested
$692.4
Value
$125.36
PnL
+$43.22
Record
47%
13002-14566 (27568)
Invested
$110.08
Value
$102.84
PnL
-$7.24
Record
50%
19815-20158 (39973)
GOLDCRYPT12Invested
$119.96
Value
$90.01
PnL
+$17.49
Record
51%
977-924 (1901)
Invested
$14.75
Value
$14.9
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
7639-6913 (14552)
Invested
$2.36
Value
$2.26
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.11
Value
$1.07
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
6371-5759 (12130)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
spartachio
OG — $2.0K
Oddstorm
OG — $1.1K
VeryLucky888
OG — $442.11
Volodyabandit
OG — $352.32
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
OG — $284
38791873984189
OG — $125.36
omnibus-076daa
OG — $102.84
GOLDCRYPT12
OG — $90.01
ameisgoat11
OG — $14.9
Flaznorp
OG — $2.26