Consensus PnL -$212K · win rate 48% (115–126, n=241) · was PM monthly #969 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-212.3K
Record
115W / 126L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 241 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1896
Source
PM monthly #969
Trades
126
Markets
264
Volume
$3.2M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Racing Club $15K · now 12¢ · in at 60¢against the consensus (Real Madrid CF)
- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Under $29 · now 33¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (56% of 22)
- Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
Specialties
135 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 55¢- Soccer
+48 pts
side won 95% of 20 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +49%
- MMA
+37 pts
side won 93% of 46 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +41%
- Tennis
+31 pts
side won 86% of 36 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +39%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 75% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 95% of 41)
- 50–70¢: 56%(won 85% of 75)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 100% of 15)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.