Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (79%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Dec 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 79%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$-9.9K

Smart Money Entry

6.5¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,982

Combined PnL+$593.22

Yes11 traders

Total Value$113.63

Total Shares126,606

Combined PnL$-10.5K

No — 21%Yes — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

41 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Noavg 85¢	$3.4K	$3.9K	+$589.27	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
4751346<$100	Noavg 89.3¢	$33.03	$36.97	+$3.94	72% 1257-483 (1740)
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 11.6¢	$4.1K	$34.89	$-4.0K	39% 397-627 (1024)
ZH zhqzhqCTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$6.72	$28.51	-$985.72	81% 22-5 (27)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$3.6K	$12.97	$-3.4K	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$92.28	$11.9	-$80.39	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$144.12	$10.62	-$137.99	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Yesavg 7.3¢	$476.55	$5.93	-$470.61	60% 1348-884 (2232)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 6.6¢	$283.65	$3.68	-$269.89	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$3.54	$3.55	+$0	52% 5046-4713 (9759)
TI timezonewarriorCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$356.98	$2.75	-$355.61	45% 107-132 (239)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$56.36	$2.21	-$77.82	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.08	$0.17	+$0.08	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$2.7K	$0	-$733.86	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

Nooserac

Invested

$3,350.39

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$589.27

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

4751346<$100

Invested

$33.03

Value

$36.97

PnL

+$3.94

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,063.36

Value

$34.89

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

zhqzhqCTR

Yes

Invested

$6.72

Value

$28.51

PnL

-$985.72

Record

81%

22-5 (27)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,570.26

Value

$12.97

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$92.28

Value

$11.9

PnL

-$80.39

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$144.12

Value

$10.62

PnL

-$137.99

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Yes

Invested

$476.55

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$470.61

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$283.65

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$269.89

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

korda77<$100

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

timezonewarriorCTR

Yes

Invested

$356.98

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$355.61

Record

45%

107-132 (239)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.36

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$77.82

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.08

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,672.28

Value

PnL

-$733.86

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

41 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.