Consensus PnL -$99K · win rate 56% (29–23, n=52) · PM monthly #774 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-99.0K
Record
29W / 23L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 52 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1424
Source
PM monthly #774
Trades
54
Markets
69
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?No $42K · now 18¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No $24K · now 80¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (89% of 28)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?No $19K · now 34¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?No $4.4K · now 59¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
Specialties
39 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 71¢- Finance
+12 pts
side won 91% of 11 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +2%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 75% of 12 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 83% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 71% of 7)
- 70¢ and up: 59%(won 96% of 23)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.