Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 82¢ · $267K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes82¢No18¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$267.0K

Combined PnL

$-12.3K

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 82¢

+29% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 82%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$224.1K

Total Shares273,259

Combined PnL+$50.7K

No5 traders

Total Value$42.9K

Total Shares238,398

Combined PnL$-63.0K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

1654h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yesavg 69.9¢	$78.3K	$91.8K	+$13.5K	63% 353-204 (557)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 63.7¢	$66.4K	$85.4K	+$19.0K	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
UM uma003CTR	Noavg 44.7¢	$110.7K	$42.5K	$-63.0K	49% 29-30 (59)
occasionalAwareness	Yesavg 44.2¢	$20.2K	$37.4K	+$17.2K	52% 284-262 (546)
PM pmcb	Yesavg 60¢	$2.4K	$3.3K	+$880.01	91% 49-5 (54)
TH thoodr	Yesavg 83.8¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$63.08	96% 631-24 (655)
Dragontree	Yesavg 77.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$96.12	58% 1250-888 (2138)
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 74.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$111.56	75% 540-176 (716)
RememberAmalekCTR	Noavg 14.9¢	$237.78	$287.7	+$49.92	56% 973-770 (1743)
Talophex	Yesavg 88.3¢	$177.67	$164	-$13.67	91% 929-95 (1024)
TBill1CTR	Noavg 26.4¢	$166.14	$113.27	-$52.87	45% 154-188 (342)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$65	$45	-$20	65% 527-282 (809)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 77.6¢	$39.59	$41.07	+$1.48	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 81.9¢	$36.65	$36.42	-$0.23	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$6.46	$6.12	-$0.34	54% 229-195 (424)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Yes

Invested

$78,289.87

Value

$91.8K

PnL

+$13.5K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$66,378.64

Value

$85.4K

PnL

+$19.0K

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

uma003CTR

Invested

$110,713.06

Value

$42.5K

PnL

$-63.0K

Record

49%

29-30 (59)

occasionalAwareness

Yes

Invested

$20,219.65

Value

$37.4K

PnL

+$17.2K

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

pmcb

Yes

Invested

$2,400

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$880.01

Record

91%

49-5 (54)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$2,879.6

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$63.08

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

Dragontree

Yes

Invested

$1,788.56

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$96.12

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$1,168.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$111.56

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

RememberAmalekCTR

Invested

$237.78

Value

$287.7

PnL

+$49.92

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

Talophex

Yes

Invested

$177.67

Value

$164

PnL

-$13.67

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

TBill1CTR

Invested

$166.14

Value

$113.27

PnL

-$52.87

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Invested

$65

Value

$45

PnL

-$20

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.59

Value

$41.07

PnL

+$1.48

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.65

Value

$36.42

PnL

-$0.23

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Invested

$6.46

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$0.34

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 82%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

1654h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.6%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.