Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (54%) · Yes at 66¢ · $109K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 54%

Total Value

$108.9K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 66¢

+26% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$75.9K

Total Shares116,039

Combined PnL+$15.0K

No6 traders

Total Value$33.0K

Total Shares94,602

Combined PnL$-13.8K

Yes — 54%No — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

22 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
occasionalAwareness	Yesavg 36.3¢	$20.3K	$36.3K	+$16.1K	52% 284-262 (546)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yesavg 69.5¢	$35.0K	$33.2K	$-1.8K	63% 353-204 (557)
UM uma003CTR	Noavg 58.8¢	$31.8K	$18.6K	$-13.2K	49% 29-30 (59)
oieshfn345CTR	Noavg 33.6¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$62.24	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
BMM-1CTR	Noavg 41¢	$5.9K	$5.1K	$-1.0K	95% 19-1 (20)
PM pmcb	Yesavg 58.4¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$530.03	91% 49-5 (54)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Noavg 31.8¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$163.18	65% 862-465 (1327)
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 64.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$30.03	75% 540-176 (716)
RememberAmalekCTR	Noavg 27.6¢	$579.41	$733	+$123.43	56% 973-770 (1743)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 41.1¢	$305.87	$496.59	+$190.72	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
ME melonmanmCTR	Noavg 31¢	$310	$349.37	+$30	65% 527-282 (809)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 65.6¢	$53.61	$52.08	-$1.52	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
Talophex<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$49.09	$40.91	-$7.55	91% 929-95 (1024)

occasionalAwareness

Yes

Invested

$20,264.37

Value

$36.3K

PnL

+$16.1K

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Yes

Invested

$35,021.53

Value

$33.2K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

uma003CTR

Invested

$31,804.15

Value

$18.6K

PnL

$-13.2K

Record

49%

29-30 (59)

oieshfn345CTR

Invested

$5,408.51

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$62.24

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

BMM-1CTR

Invested

$5,938.71

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

95%

19-1 (20)

pmcb

Yes

Invested

$4,089.97

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$530.03

Record

91%

49-5 (54)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Invested

$2,631.8

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$163.18

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$1,187.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$30.03

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

RememberAmalekCTR

Invested

$579.41

Value

$733

PnL

+$123.43

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$305.87

Value

$496.59

PnL

+$190.72

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

melonmanmCTR

Invested

$310

Value

$349.37

PnL

+$30

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.61

Value

$52.08

PnL

-$1.52

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Talophex<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.09

Value

$40.91

PnL

-$7.55

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

22 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.9%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.