Consensus PnL $165K · win rate 56% (477–371, n=848) · was PM monthly #996 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$165.5K
Record
477W / 371L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 848 settled
Batting Avg
61.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1387
Source
PM monthly #996
Trades
725
Markets
1,101
Volume
$4.3M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $13K · now 63¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (61% of 48)
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Yes $40 · now 4¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $35 · now 35¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
626 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 46¢- Soccer
+48 pts
side won 93% of 281 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +54%
- NBA
+46 pts
side won 94% of 34 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +41%
- NHL
+44 pts
side won 94% of 35 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +42%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 30% of 10 at an average 41¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI −12%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 56% of 87)
- 30–50¢: 50%(won 80% of 313)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 92% of 169)
- 70¢ and up: 9%(won 93% of 57)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.