Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 96¢ · $33K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$32.8K
$3.2K
84.9¢ → 96¢
+13% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Late
3057h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE denizz | Noavg 83.1¢ | $10.8K | $11.3K | +$1.5K | 68% 597-284 (881) |
 MEPP | Noavg 79.4¢ | $6.1K | $7.4K | +$1.2K | 64% 633-352 (985) |
AL alwaysOn | Noavg 88.7¢ | $6.0K | $6.5K | +$484.81 | 77% 632-185 (817) |
KE Kevindoto | Noavg 90¢ | $4.5K | $4.8K | +$302.5 | 80% 437-110 (547) |
AF afdafdafdafdafd | Noavg 89¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$176.25 | 73% 196-73 (269) |
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $768.78 | $288.65 | -$480.06 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $80.35 | $79.94 | -$0.41 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 xfileCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $50 | $40 | -$10 | 41% 473-673 (1146) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $36.7 | $38.4 | +$1.7 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $11.39 | $11.51 | +$0.12 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $9.14 | $7.33 | -$1.81 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
Invested
$10,787.36
Value
$11.3K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
68%
597-284 (881)
MEPPInvested
$6,119.49
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
Invested
$5,990.06
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$484.81
Record
77%
632-185 (817)
Invested
$4,500
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$302.5
Record
80%
437-110 (547)
Invested
$2,225
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$176.25
Record
73%
196-73 (269)
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$768.78
Value
$288.65
PnL
-$480.06
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$80.35
Value
$79.94
PnL
-$0.41
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
xfileCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$40
PnL
-$10
Record
41%
473-673 (1146)
tetrase<$100Invested
$36.7
Value
$38.4
PnL
+$1.7
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Talophex<$100Invested
$11.39
Value
$11.51
PnL
+$0.12
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
CarCTR<$100Invested
$9.14
Value
$7.33
PnL
-$1.81
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.