10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $21K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$21.0K
$732.32
95.3¢ → 98.7¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 95¢ | $13.4K | $13.9K | +$518.03 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 Gr33d | Noavg 98.6¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$5 | 80% 2709-698 (3407) |
CR Crock95 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$109.87 | 57% 255-194 (449) |
 gopfan2 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$94.94 | 51% 901-875 (1776) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 94.6¢ | $203.08 | $207.3 | +$4.23 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 Trading4Fridge<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $5.97 | $6.21 | +$0.25 | 58% 928-661 (1589) |
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$13,395.24
Value
$13.9K
PnL
+$518.03
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Gr33dInvested
$2,464.99
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$5
Record
80%
2709-698 (3407)
Invested
$2,094.92
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$109.87
Record
57%
255-194 (449)
gopfan2Invested
$2,085.23
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$94.94
Record
51%
901-875 (1776)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$203.08
Value
$207.3
PnL
+$4.23
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Trading4Fridge<$100Invested
$5.97
Value
$6.21
PnL
+$0.25
Record
58%
928-661 (1589)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.