Consensus PnL $37K · win rate 88% (2308–319, n=2627) · hand-picked wallet · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$37.2K
Record
2308W / 319L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 2627 settled
Batting Avg
73.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#264
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
447,472
Markets
4,081
Volume
$31.4M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 14 on the consensus side (93%)- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No $2.5K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?No $137 · now 77¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No $133 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?No $90 · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $79 · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
- Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $11 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $11 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
- Will James Fishback win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $7 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
Specialties
3,468 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 91¢- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 94% of 653 · avg entry 92¢
ROI 0%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 93% of 212 · avg entry 89¢
ROI 0%
- Culture
+10 pts
side won 100% of 22 · avg entry 90¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 85% of 52 at an average 91¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 14% of 112)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 48% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 59% of 169)
- 70¢ and up: 91%(won 98% of 3143)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.