Consensus PnL $227K · win rate 59% (185–130, n=315) · was PM monthly #931 · holds 17 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$227.3K
Record
185W / 130L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 315 settled
Batting Avg
62.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1237
Source
PM monthly #931 + pinned
Trades
13,105
Markets
499
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
17 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 17 on the consensus side (76%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $3.9K · now 97¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No $2.2K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $2.1K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?No $1.9K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No $1.9K · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?No $1.8K · now 47¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $601 · now 100¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (81% of 21)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No $408 · now 86¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (39% of 34)
Specialties
401 settled consensus markets · held side won 43% at an average entry of 40¢- Elections
+2 pts
side won 53% of 146 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +3%
- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 34% of 67 · avg entry 30¢
ROI +1%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 38% of 32 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 34% of 108 at an average 36¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 51%(won 9% of 205)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 57% of 42)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 54% of 41)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 95% of 113)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.