Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 3

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$26.6K

Combined PnL

$8.4K

Smart Money Entry

1¢ → 1.5¢

+43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.2K

Total Shares1,513,403

Combined PnL+$8.4K

No3 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares8,539

Combined PnL-$6.53

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$373.02	$17.6K	+$8.5K	43% 561-738 (1299)
balthazar	Noavg 98.8¢	$8.2K	$8.2K	-$6.79	61% 21355-13647 (35002)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$633.2	$538.34	-$91.07	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 98.4¢	$261.38	$261.64	+$0.27	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$17.41	$17.41	+$0	76% 11358-3527 (14885)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.12	$0.12	+$0.01	78% 285-79 (364)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$373.02

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

balthazar

Invested

$8,158.91

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$6.79

Record

61%

21355-13647 (35002)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$633.2

Value

$538.34

PnL

-$91.07

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$261.38

Value

$261.64

PnL

+$0.27

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$17.41

Value

$17.41

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11358-3527 (14885)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.01

Record

78%

285-79 (364)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3828.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

3928.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.