Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 3

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$27.5K

Combined PnL

$9.8K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 1.4¢

+96% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares1,489,707

Combined PnL+$9.8K

No2 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,481

Combined PnL-$31.13

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$19.3K	+$9.8K	43% 561-738 (1299)
balthazar	Noavg 99.1¢	$7.2K	$7.2K	-$31.43	61% 21355-13647 (35002)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$457.5	$411.75	-$45.75	61% 203-132 (335)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$291.27	$339.84	+$48.57	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
TimeTraveler	Noavg 98.5¢	$197	$197.4	+$0.3	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.25	$0.54	+$0.31	66% 431-218 (649)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$9.8K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

balthazar

Invested

$7,214.61

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$31.43

Record

61%

21355-13647 (35002)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR

Yes

Invested

$457.5

Value

$411.75

PnL

-$45.75

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$291.27

Value

$339.84

PnL

+$48.57

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

TimeTraveler

Invested

$197

Value

$197.4

PnL

+$0.3

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.54

PnL

+$0.31

Record

66%

431-218 (649)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3995.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

4095.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.