Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$18.8K
$1.1K
0.7¢ → 0.7¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
39h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $10.7K | +$1.2K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.8¢ | $7.7K | $7.8K | +$46.09 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $296.42 | $225.67 | -$95.52 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 themagicofcinemaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $72.59 | $54.79 | -$21.19 | 66% 431-218 (649) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $28.7 | $28.67 | -$0.03 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $2.7 | $0.8 | -$2 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$10.7K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
balthazarInvested
$7,708.47
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$46.09
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$296.42
Value
$225.67
PnL
-$95.52
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100Invested
$72.59
Value
$54.79
PnL
-$21.19
Record
66%
431-218 (649)
Invested
$28.7
Value
$28.67
PnL
-$0.03
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$2
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.