Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.8¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares1,497,975

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$11.5K	+$1.9K	44% 577-748 (1325)
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$186	$183.6	-$2.4	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$105.58	$139.97	+$34.38	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$78.12	$80	+$1.88	56% 15515-12123 (27638)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$39.83	$41.4	+$1.57	45% 2314-2839 (5153)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8.81	$9.02	+$0.21	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.91	$6.49	-$0.43	35% 16923-31292 (48215)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.23	$0.22	-$538.22	35% 104-196 (300)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$186

Value

$183.6

PnL

-$2.4

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.58

Value

$139.97

PnL

+$34.38

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$80

PnL

+$1.88

Record

56%

15515-12123 (27638)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.83

Value

$41.4

PnL

+$1.57

Record

45%

2314-2839 (5153)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$9.02

PnL

+$0.21

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.49

PnL

-$0.43

Record

35%

16923-31292 (48215)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$538.22

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5245.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

5345.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.