Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$-4.2K

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.4¢

-28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares1,540,815

Combined PnL$-4.2K

No1 trader

Total Value$298.95

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$34.06

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$6.7K	$4.0K	$-2.7K	50% 1220-1233 (2453)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$11.09	$1.3K	-$912.73	44% 577-748 (1325)
AN anciano	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.3K	$298.95	+$34.06	52% 1161-1067 (2228)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$78.12	$35	-$43.12	56% 15516-12124 (27640)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$74.27	$33.96	-$40.31	45% 2314-2842 (5156)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.95	$3.41	+$1.46	21% 2284-8698 (10982)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.24	$0.56	-$0.68	33% 3061-6298 (9359)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.61	$0.27	-$515.93	35% 107-199 (306)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,727.01

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

50%

1220-1233 (2453)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$11.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$912.73

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

anciano

Invested

$5,278.61

Value

$298.95

PnL

+$34.06

Record

52%

1161-1067 (2228)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$35

PnL

-$43.12

Record

56%

15516-12124 (27640)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.27

Value

$33.96

PnL

-$40.31

Record

45%

2314-2842 (5156)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$1.46

Record

21%

2284-8698 (10982)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.24

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.68

Record

33%

3061-6298 (9359)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$515.93

Record

35%

107-199 (306)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.