Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$12.1K
$1.3K
0.7¢ → 0.8¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
54h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.8K | $11.0K | +$1.2K | 44% 577-748 (1325) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $895.18 | $961.86 | +$66.69 | 50% 1220-1231 (2451) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $78.12 | $75 | -$3.12 | 56% 15513-12122 (27635) |
AN ancianoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $38.9 | $37.35 | -$1.55 | 52% 1154-1065 (2219) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $37.25 | $37.08 | -$0.18 | 45% 2313-2837 (5150) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yes | $13.56 | $13.56 | -$0.56 | 17% 1022-4935 (5957) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $2.37 | $2.27 | -$0.09 | 24% 666-2082 (2748) |
Invested
$9,770.9
Value
$11.0K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
44%
577-748 (1325)
Invested
$895.18
Value
$961.86
PnL
+$66.69
Record
50%
1220-1231 (2451)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$78.12
Value
$75
PnL
-$3.12
Record
56%
15513-12122 (27635)
Invested
$38.9
Value
$37.35
PnL
-$1.55
Record
52%
1154-1065 (2219)
Invested
$37.25
Value
$37.08
PnL
-$0.18
Record
45%
2313-2837 (5150)
Invested
$13.56
Value
$13.56
PnL
-$0.56
Record
17%
1022-4935 (5957)
Invested
$2.37
Value
$2.27
PnL
-$0.09
Record
24%
666-2082 (2748)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.