Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$-6.6K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.3¢

-61% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares1,548,763

Combined PnL$-6.6K

No1 trader

Total Value$299.25

Total Shares300

Combined PnL-$0.15

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$3.6K	$-6.0K	44% 577-748 (1325)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 99.8¢	$299.4	$299.25	-$0.15	45% 2314-2840 (5154)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$222.65	$237.36	+$35.25	50% 1220-1233 (2453)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$78.12	$25	-$53.12	56% 15515-12123 (27638)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$38.9	$12.45	-$26.45	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$3.4	$5.75	-$10.23	61% 670-428 (1098)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$12.91	$4.13	-$8.78	15% 118-669 (787)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8.81	$2.82	-$5.99	17% 1026-4952 (5978)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.77	$0.25	-$0.52	33% 3060-6298 (9358)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.49	$0.16	-$526.26	35% 105-199 (304)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$299.4

Value

$299.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

45%

2314-2840 (5154)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$222.65

Value

$237.36

PnL

+$35.25

Record

50%

1220-1233 (2453)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$25

PnL

-$53.12

Record

56%

15515-12123 (27638)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.9

Value

$12.45

PnL

-$26.45

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$10.23

Record

61%

670-428 (1098)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.91

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$8.78

Record

15%

118-669 (787)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$5.99

Record

17%

1026-4952 (5978)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.52

Record

33%

3060-6298 (9358)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$526.26

Record

35%

105-199 (304)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.