Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$-5.2K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.4¢

-46% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares1,544,645

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$5.0K	$-4.5K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$401.12	$274.51	-$40.29	52% 1205-1095 (2300)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$78.12	$35	-$43.12	56% 15494-12093 (27587)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$47.75	$21.67	-$26.08	45% 2290-2797 (5087)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$16.55	$7.42	-$9.14	21% 813-3020 (3833)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$7.67	$3.44	-$4.24	26% 179-504 (683)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$7.59	$2.53	-$75.19	36% 16787-30093 (46880)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.8	$0.36	-$504.86	36% 99-173 (272)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$401.12

Value

$274.51

PnL

-$40.29

Record

52%

1205-1095 (2300)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$35

PnL

-$43.12

Record

56%

15494-12093 (27587)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.75

Value

$21.67

PnL

-$26.08

Record

45%

2290-2797 (5087)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.55

Value

$7.42

PnL

-$9.14

Record

21%

813-3020 (3833)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.67

Value

$3.44

PnL

-$4.24

Record

26%

179-504 (683)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.59

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$75.19

Record

36%

16787-30093 (46880)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$504.86

Record

36%

99-173 (272)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.