Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$21.0K
$2.7K
0.7¢ → 0.8¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $10.3K | $13.0K | +$2.6K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
 balthazar | Noavg 98.7¢ | $7.7K | $7.7K | +$39.19 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $189 | $168 | -$20.12 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $352.2 | $101.27 | +$42.49 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yes | $20 | $20 | -$1.07 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $7.51 | $7.5 | -$0.02 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
Invested
$10,330.72
Value
$13.0K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
balthazarInvested
$7,703.71
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$39.19
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$189
Value
$168
PnL
-$20.12
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$352.2
Value
$101.27
PnL
+$42.49
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$20
Value
$20
PnL
-$1.07
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$7.51
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$0.02
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.