Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$16.9K
$292.42
99.4¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yes | $10.4K | $10.4K | +$0 | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.4¢ | $5.8K | $5.8K | -$21.46 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $495.5 | $495 | -$0.5 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $502 | $141.08 | +$287.84 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $36 | $35 | +$26.5 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 themagicofcinemaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.06 | $0.1 | +$0.04 | 66% 431-218 (649) |
Invested
$10,424.65
Value
$10.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
balthazarInvested
$5,824.37
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$21.46
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Tenebrus7Invested
$495.5
Value
$495
PnL
-$0.5
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
Invested
$502
Value
$141.08
PnL
+$287.84
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$36
Value
$35
PnL
+$26.5
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.1
PnL
+$0.04
Record
66%
431-218 (649)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.