Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$14.8K
-$61.07
0.7¢ → 0.7¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $9.3K | -$247.91 | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 99.4¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | -$2.5 | 56% 15373-11923 (27296) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $428.9 | $464.79 | +$148.8 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yes | $15 | $15 | -$1.07 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $1.78 | $1.25 | +$40.88 | 36% 16105-28110 (44215) |
 themagicofcinemaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.24 | $0.97 | +$0.72 | 66% 431-219 (650) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$9.3K
PnL
-$247.91
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$4,970
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$2.5
Record
56%
15373-11923 (27296)
Invested
$428.9
Value
$464.79
PnL
+$148.8
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$15
Value
$15
PnL
-$1.07
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$1.78
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$40.88
Record
36%
16105-28110 (44215)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.97
PnL
+$0.72
Record
66%
431-219 (650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.