Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$14.0K
$2.8K
0.7¢ → 0.5¢
-25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $12.2K | +$2.6K | 43% 572-748 (1320) |
BU BunCaCham | Noavg 99.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0.56 | 97% 2587-69 (2656) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.1K | $562.76 | +$124.13 | 53% 1174-1057 (2231) |
11 11122<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $91.36 | $91.36 | +$0.79 | 43% 1401-1820 (3221) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $40 | $70 | +$30 | 56% 15375-11924 (27299) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.17 | $0.09 | +$0.17 | 56% 14473-11230 (25703) |
Invested
$9,561.36
Value
$12.2K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
43%
572-748 (1320)
Invested
$1,111
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0.56
Record
97%
2587-69 (2656)
Invested
$1,148
Value
$562.76
PnL
+$124.13
Record
53%
1174-1057 (2231)
Invested
$91.36
Value
$91.36
PnL
+$0.79
Record
43%
1401-1820 (3221)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$40
Value
$70
PnL
+$30
Record
56%
15375-11924 (27299)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.09
PnL
+$0.17
Record
56%
14473-11230 (25703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.