Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$25.3K
$14.5K
0.7¢ → 1.7¢
+134% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $23.6K | +$14.1K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $841.12 | $1.2K | +$395.37 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
PL plumbisCTR | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $360 | $330 | -$30 | 57% 51-39 (90) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $58.7 | $36.34 | +$47.64 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yes | $28.56 | $28.56 | +$0 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.12 | $0.16 | +$0.05 | 78% 283-79 (362) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$23.6K
PnL
+$14.1K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
Invested
$841.12
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$395.37
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$360
Value
$330
PnL
-$30
Record
57%
51-39 (90)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$58.7
Value
$36.34
PnL
+$47.64
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$28.56
Value
$28.56
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0.05
Record
78%
283-79 (362)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.