Will Al-Taawoun FC win on 2026-11-04?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 73¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 4

Yes73¢No27¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$75.56

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 72.5¢

+24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,286

Combined PnL+$81.12

No2 traders

Total Value$388.15

Total Shares1,091

Combined PnL-$5.56

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 58.3¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$78.59	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$94.07	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65¢	$975.11	$914.48	-$60.62
└ No leg	Noavg 42.4¢	$414.48	$381.03	-$33.45
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 35.9¢	$384.13	$379.53	-$4.59	50% 27765-27630 (55395)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 62.5¢	$33.93	$35.26	+$1.32	50% 25481-25189 (50670)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$17.65	$18.86	+$1.21	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 43.4¢	$9.58	$8.62	-$0.96	74% 2421-862 (3283)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$1,871.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$78.59

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,389.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$94.07

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

Both legs:

Yes$975.1165¢-$60.62

No$414.4842.4¢-$33.45

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$384.13

Value

$379.53

PnL

-$4.59

Record

50%

27765-27630 (55395)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.93

Value

$35.26

PnL

+$1.32

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.65

Value

$18.86

PnL

+$1.21

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$9.58

Value

$8.62

PnL

-$0.96

Record

74%

2421-862 (3283)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.