Will Lion City Sailors FC win on 2026-11-05?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
3 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$111.58
66.8¢ → 91¢
+36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-46 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rayvanmechelen | Yesavg 67.6¢ | $1.0K | $968.4 | -$40.64 | 54% 2564-2224 (4788) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 34.1¢ | $299.96 | $229.02 | -$70.94 | 50% 28320-28210 (56530) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 34.9¢ | $680.58 | $195.03 | -$485.55 | 51% 25630-24353 (49983) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 34.9¢ | $636.43 | $127.56 | -$508.87 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60.9¢ | $44.15 | $67.48 | +$23.33 | |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Noavg 33.9¢ | $122.04 | $117.33 | -$4.71 | 64% 9844-5498 (15342) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 33.9¢ | $86.99 | $79.54 | -$7.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 64¢ | $35.06 | $37.8 | +$2.74 | |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Noavg 33.8¢ | $105.38 | $102.66 | -$2.72 | 64% 9878-5564 (15442) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 33.8¢ | $68.07 | $62.44 | -$5.63 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 64¢ | $37.31 | $40.23 | +$2.91 | |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $81.51 | $95.7 | +$14.19 | 50% 21108-21355 (42463) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $67.38 | $68.95 | +$1.57 | 51% 6327-6110 (12437) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.8¢ | $65.69 | $49.93 | -$15.76 | 50% 25743-25431 (51174) |
rayvanmechelenInvested
$1,009.67
Value
$968.4
PnL
-$40.64
Record
54%
2564-2224 (4788)
Invested
$299.96
Value
$229.02
PnL
-$70.94
Record
50%
28320-28210 (56530)
Invested
$680.58
Value
$195.03
PnL
-$485.55
Record
51%
25630-24353 (49983)
Both legs:
Invested
$122.04
Value
$117.33
PnL
-$4.71
Record
64%
9844-5498 (15342)
Both legs:
Invested
$105.38
Value
$102.66
PnL
-$2.72
Record
64%
9878-5564 (15442)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.51
Value
$95.7
PnL
+$14.19
Record
50%
21108-21355 (42463)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$67.38
Value
$68.95
PnL
+$1.57
Record
51%
6327-6110 (12437)
Invested
$65.69
Value
$49.93
PnL
-$15.76
Record
50%
25743-25431 (51174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.