Will PKR Svay Rieng win on 2026-11-05?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 5

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$341.44

Smart Money Entry

92.1¢ → 98.6¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$851.13

Total Shares845

Combined PnL-$341.66

No3 traders

Total Value$18.44

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$0.22

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 92¢	$1.2K	$834.23	-$339.7	51% 25691-24411 (50102)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 77.4¢	$313.16	$255.31	-$57.85	50% 28405-28302 (56707)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 77.4¢	$177.62	$189.32	+$11.7
└ No leg	Noavg 35.9¢	$135.54	$65.99	-$69.55
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 94.3¢	$18.86	$16.9	-$1.96	75% 1893-646 (2539)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$10.76	$11.05	+$0.3	54% 2569-2229 (4798)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 36.9¢	$4.56	$4.21	-$0.36	50% 25799-25489 (51288)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$2.9	$3.18	+$0.28	51% 6329-6117 (12446)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,173.94

Value

$834.23

PnL

-$339.7

Record

51%

25691-24411 (50102)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$313.16

Value

$255.31

PnL

-$57.85

Record

50%

28405-28302 (56707)

Both legs:

Yes$177.6277.4¢+$11.7

No$135.5435.9¢-$69.55

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.86

Value

$16.9

PnL

-$1.96

Record

75%

1893-646 (2539)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10.76

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

2569-2229 (4798)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.36

Record

50%

25799-25489 (51288)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.28

Record

51%

6329-6117 (12446)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.