Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Under β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Under
Al Hilal SFC vs. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: O/U 4.5
Resolved Under. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was right.
π
Won
5
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$34.99
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 78.7Β’ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$209.65 | 51% 23562-22316 (45878) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 81.5Β’ | $188.73 | $152.34 | -$36.39 | 50% 27470-27366 (54836) |
| β Under leg | Underavg 81.5Β’ | $124.09 | $152.34 | +$28.25 | |
| β Over leg | Overavg 16.5Β’ | $64.64 | β | -$64.64 | |
![]() RN1CTR | Overavg 18Β’ | $155.42 | β | -$155.42 | 53% 59264-51568 (110832) |
![]() poshposh<$100 | Underavg 77Β’ | $32.99 | $42.85 | +$9.86 | 57% 12035-9120 (21155) |
![]() HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 22.9Β’ | $1.14 | β | -$1.14 | 51% 7440-7178 (14618) |
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100 | Overavg 23Β’ | $83.55 | β | -$27.95 | 77% 3685-1088 (4773) |
Invested
$1,114.31
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$209.65
Record
51%
23562-22316 (45878)
Invested
$188.73
Value
$152.34
PnL
-$36.39
Record
50%
27470-27366 (54836)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$155.42
Value
β
PnL
-$155.42
Record
53%
59264-51568 (110832)
poshposh<$100Invested
$32.99
Value
$42.85
PnL
+$9.86
Record
57%
12035-9120 (21155)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.14
Value
β
PnL
-$1.14
Record
51%
7440-7178 (14618)
Invested
$83.55
Value
β
PnL
-$27.95
Record
77%
3685-1088 (4773)